Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 51621.201381 54744.426830 57876.633010 61250.937148 64780.747768 68361.606276 72266.292169
2024-10-13 46429.203438 51174.524457 56077.068661 61512.134661 67360.484514 73455.877502 80280.604229
2024-10-20 42588.801000 48401.912017 54550.077134 61519.912383 69184.300042 77338.016428 86650.393250
2024-10-27 39476.680094 46047.487684 53135.937891 61323.003310 70489.009740 80405.471570 91915.080119
2024-11-03 37733.415503 45005.921252 52984.825144 62346.732401 72986.901925 84660.127654 98390.066128
2024-11-10 36115.746607 43958.524818 52695.555877 63093.220254 75070.206125 88373.646305 104205.253794
2024-11-17 34492.037099 42785.541468 52157.082898 63456.901337 76634.517415 91437.858045 109242.598488
2024-11-24 32826.079548 41461.755492 51352.739304 63427.235151 77672.025790 93843.692176 113486.892794
2024-12-01 31511.667853 40478.899622 50879.576191 63722.224684 79035.115214 96587.626182 118100.200689
2024-12-08 30175.400213 39400.795260 50231.470585 63752.486638 80038.505708 98877.946200 122164.359791
2024-12-15 29415.157970 38981.934510 50337.325903 64653.940825 82055.513874 102350.136813 127624.695413
2024-12-22 28153.350388 37886.941956 49571.919086 64454.034893 82711.519181 104181.608217 131124.729333
2024-12-29 27555.898226 37612.309693 49811.324735 65492.907012 84894.524720 107882.410349 136929.845915
2025-01-05 26725.214168 37009.217986 49617.133564 65977.057375 86390.919329 110761.317022 141768.548588
2025-01-12 25746.379034 36176.442454 49100.179337 66027.857890 87329.797907 112951.262546 145772.808432
2025-01-19 24715.903756 35236.491079 48411.060318 65828.145831 87929.626457 114708.567866 149241.898253
2025-01-26 24319.853019 35109.199768 48743.941159 66913.271392 90134.086034 118445.360951 155161.237563
2025-02-02 23821.860028 34824.813473 48856.586113 67703.483605 91960.850867 121718.775759 160525.749908
2025-02-09 23181.792585 34325.380819 48668.477229 68088.326488 93261.569449 124334.869519 165083.333502
2025-02-16 22405.181967 33613.593814 48177.183000 68056.956460 94013.062886 126253.970894 168771.498353
2025-02-23 21806.455741 33123.793437 47960.631505 68369.036682 95195.923951 128713.625793 173146.176447
2025-03-02 21128.188840 32500.935322 47545.837707 68401.051312 96002.203590 130689.873041 176914.047716
2025-03-09 20834.485105 32403.415018 47828.612152 69354.618382 98011.114345 134207.065720 182657.742142